End of the road for Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai?

IN 1985, I was a grade four pupil at Tapfuma Primary School in Marondera and President Robert Mugabe was an energetic man in his early 60s and he happened to have been campaigning to be retained as the head of state in that year.
I was one of the lucky few to have greeted him at Rudhaka Stadium, and for two days I refused to wash my right hand despite threats of a serious thrashing from my vegetable vendor mother. President Mugabe went on to win as usual and life went on as usual till 2000 when the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) led by Morgan Tsvangirai rattled President Mugabe.
I got to know Tsvangirai years later when I was a student at the University of Zimbabwe. We admired his fiery May 1 speeches. May 1 was a date each student looked forward to as we could march and sing all the way to Rufaro Stadium and get inspired.
I was part of a group of students who were addressed by Tsvangirai at the University of Zimbabwe Great Hall around 1998-1999. The call was that he should join politics, and his premonition was, will the people follow should he take this route. I am sure he can answer that now.
The paths of two post-independence political leaders who have become the fiercest rivals were to cross in 2002. It is a public secret who won that election, despite what the 'official results' say. Zimbabwe has never been the same again since 2000.
Others say the fact that President Mugabe had such a fierce hatred for Tsvangirai meant that Zimbabwe would go down the drain if none of the two gave up. None has given up but something has, and it is end game for the two rivals.
On September 18 2007, the Zimbabwe parliament passed the 18th Amendment to the transitional Lancaster House constitution.
In the amendment President Mugabe made piecemeal concessions, nothing substantive, and nothing concrete to cause a sea change in the political fortunes of Zimbabwe. The MDC, in its wisdom or lack of it, says it supports the process to build bridges. Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa says Zimbabweans have come of age. But what is in it for the two bitter rivals, President Mugabe and Tsvangirai?
ZANU PF realises that its future is a dead-end should it continue on the current path but there is no one with the guts to change the status quo. President Mugabe has centralised power around himself since 1980. Nonetheless he has become a liability and his time to go, has without doubt come, but how?
Constitutional Amendment Number 18 is the most likely strategy to exit with his head high. He has "defeated" Tsvangirai, he has "defeated" Britain and Tony Blair. He has "defeated" the great United States of America and Bush. He has shown the rest of Africa how to deal with imperialists, more importantly President Mugabe has defeated the palace coup plotters.
President Mugabe will be allowed to "choose" his successor, and go in grace with his tail up. He has written a new chapter in African politics by remaining at the helm of a virtually collapsed country.
Who ever is the chosen one will without doubt make the seemingly concrete concessions. Maybe the Daily News will come back, maybe the Broadcasting Services Act, the Public Order and Security Act and the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act will be amended. Maybe the youth militia camps will be closed, maybe the war veterans will go back to their poverty in urban and rural areas.
The chosen one will reach out to the international community through Thabo Mbeki and SADC and say "here you are, human rights have been restored, hail to Thabo, please pass us on the money".
Zimbabwe will be another "classic" case of how Africans have come of age in resolving a crisis. Quiet diplomacy will be adopted in political science curricula and the UN will appoint an ambassador and Permanent Representative of Quiet Diplomacy. President Mbeki might give a lecture on this.
For Zimbabwe at least, President Mugabe will be gone, and that to others, is change enough.
While President Mugabe's fate is clear, that of Tsvangirai is a classic case of betrayal. Tsvangirai is not a Member of Parliament and is likely to be the MDC candidate in an unwinnable election. MDC supporters are likely to question him, and accuse him and his team of selling out. Some youths will still sing, Morgan Tsvangirai Ndizvo, achasunungura Zimbabwe. But the boat seems to have passed Tsvangirai already.
The MDC leader faces hard questions in explaining the events of September 18, when ZANU PF and the MDC unanimously agreed to amend the Constitution, to the majority of his supporters. Especially what bridge has been built, what this bridge means for the ordinary citizen, to Chiminya and Mabika, to Ndabanyana and hundreds of others who lost their lives for the MDC. He will also owe an explanation to th the majority of Zimbabweans whose lives have been ruined because of ZANU PF's policies.
The likely scenario is that Tsvangirai is the unwilling sacrificial lamb, sacrificed at the altar of quiet diplomacy and the quest for power by those inside his 'cabinet'. Tsvangirai, as the situation stands, cannot win an election next year under the present electoral laws and environment and without a parliamentary seat his fate is sealed.
Arthur Mutambara will be 'magnanimous' and give Tsvangirai a shot at goal, while he runs as an ordinary MP or Senator and win. Tsvangirai, come end of 2008, will be out and come the MDC congress a few years later, will be gone for good.
The MDC has no leverage to push ZANU PF to implement what ever Chinamasa promised apart from cooption, the path the party has already taken. The rest of Zimbabweans will continue to scratch the ground for survival, after all are we not Africans like the Somalis and Congolese. Let the regime change and transition that Zimbabwe has been waiting for begin.
Rashweat Mukundu is the director of MISA-Zimbabwe